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The Perfect Storm: Heading towards a World Wide Food Crisis.

School feeding programme, Kenya (Courtesy WFP, Thierry Geenen)

Village in Angola (Courtesy WFP, Tom Haskell)

Fetching water in Eritrea (Courtesy WFP, Evelyn Hockstein)

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The world is heading towards a global food crisis. A number of factors contribute to what could be described as 'A Perfect Storm':

The price of fuel increased dramatically in the past years, thus the price of food production and transport increased dramatically.

For the first time in many years, the world's food production went into a deficit last year, pushing the price of the commodities, based on a supply and demand dynamic, even up higher.

Fast growing economies like China pulls people away from rural areas, causing a loss of farm land. The country lost an average of 1.23 million hectares of farmland annually in the past years. China is now looking for foreign farms because the nation can't feed its 1.3 billion people.

The increased food prices hit the most vulnerable countries the hardest: where people used to survive on the 'edge': Their income is no longer sufficient to feed themselves. International wheat prices in January 2008 were 83 percent higher than a year earlier. Protests turned riots in Bangladesh, Mozambique and Burkina Faso last week, will be the first in a long row, showing people simply can not cope with the price increases.

Aid agencies, traditionally able to feed the most vulnerable, are scrambling too: as the fuel prices increased, so did the cost to transport food aid. Add to that the increased price of the food commodities, for the same aid-dollar, less food is being delivered. This will have donors ask questions about the effectiveness of their aid-dollar invested in food aid, and might cause a trend where donors move away from food aid.

The outlook is not good: Because of the increased fuel prices, and the recent worldwide rally about global warming, the price of biofuel has gone up, having many farmers move away from food production, to a more lucrative biofuel production. The U.S. is now using more corn for the production of ethanol than the entire food crop in Canada.
This takes away a lot of resources (land, assets, production and distribution capacity) from the food production, not only in the West, but even in food deficit countries in Africa and Asia. Less food being produced once again pushes the prices even higher.

The global warming has shifted weather patterns, causing more natural disasters: tropical cyclones causing vast flooding hit Central America, Africa and Asia harder than ever before. Winters are harsher and longer in Central Asia. Dry spells bring longer periods of droughts cause crops to dry up, and cattle to die.

More demand for food, less production, higher prices. A vicious circle, felt the hardest in developing countries. How can this cycle be broken?

Author's note:
I have updated the data and some facts of this article in: The Global Food Crisis: a Perfect Storm.
I also published different articles on the food crisis on The Road to the Horizon.

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{"commentId":1503945,"authorDomain":"petercasier"}

It seems we are moving further and further away from the 2012 goals to eradicate hunger in the world...

{"commentId":1503945,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"petercasier"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#1 - Sun Feb 24, 2008 5:55 PM EST
{"commentId":1505248,"authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}

Peter: Sorry, man. Time to check into the Reality Hotel.

In about 40 years, we will have one-third more people than the total number on the planet right now. Total world population is about six billion. By 2050, about NINE billion.

Food crisis today? You haven't seen anything yet. This is just the first inning of a doubleheader game.

{"commentId":1505248,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#2 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 3:14 AM EST
{"commentId":1505303,"authorDomain":"Henryvii"}

Sure, if you assume technology will halt tomorrow and have no advances by 2050.

Any predictions like these that don't take technology into account are horrendously inaccurate.

{"commentId":1505303,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"Henryvii"}
  • 2 votes
#2.1 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:20 AM EST
{"commentId":1505323,"authorDomain":"petercasier"}

Henry VII... Hmmmm.. what technology? Have not seen anything in the past years that would stop the estimated 25,000 people dying of hunger related deceases already today...

Robert: I agree with you. It is only the first sign of worse to come...!

{"commentId":1505323,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"petercasier"}
  • 1 vote
#2.2 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:35 AM EST
{"commentId":1505330,"authorDomain":"Henryvii"}

I know you don't want to hear it, but the only reason people are still eating today is due to Genetically Modified Foods. If we can perfect those, we will be able to feed everyone. This doesn't even consider changing our DNA to require less, or artificial digestive systems or reinstantiation.

{"commentId":1505330,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"Henryvii"}
  • 2 votes
#2.3 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:40 AM EST
{"commentId":1506910,"authorDomain":"petercasier"}

Genetically modified, or biologically trimmed/selected crops more resistant to weather variances, infestation,.... But even then... Would we still be able to feed our own? With all the GM crops in the world?

{"commentId":1506910,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"petercasier"}
  • 1 vote
#2.4 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 2:41 PM EST
{"commentId":1507436,"authorDomain":"Henryvii"}

GM foods are in their infancy. We are working on putting a days supply of vitamins and minerals in a simply bowl of rice. We are working on growing meat in a factory, rather than spending years to grow a live animal. People may not be eating what they want, but simply vegetarianism would feed the entire world quite easily.

{"commentId":1507436,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"Henryvii"}
  • 1 vote
#2.5 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 4:42 PM EST
{"commentId":1508450,"authorDomain":"wbrianwhite"}

The same food crisis predictions were huge in the 1970s. Remember those? The whole world was going to collapse before hitting 5 billion. Did you even notice 5 billion?

US agriculture could feed 30 times as many people if we started eating grains directly and stopped feeding the majority of our production to pigs, chickens, and cows. Most people do not realize the sheer scale of the inefficiency involved in eating meat. It is vast.

{"commentId":1508450,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"wbrianwhite"}
  • 2 votes
#2.6 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 9:25 PM EST
{"commentId":1513002,"authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}

I would like to recommend a book written by a Cambridge University professor recently.

'Our Final Century' by Martin Rees.

Don't read it unless you want the s__t scared out of you, though. This guy makes a lot of sense, listing the realities and problems coming toward us in the 21st Century. He gives the human race 'no better than a fifty-fifty chance' of making it to 2099 without a major extinction event. He lists things like climate change, famine, water shortages, overpopulation, pandemics, etc. and unlike other researchers, he not only links them together, but gives hard evidence why some of them will become reality.

{"commentId":1513002,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}
  • 2 votes
#2.7 - Wed Feb 27, 2008 2:12 AM EST
{"commentId":1513105,"authorDomain":"seward"}

Thanks for that, Robert, I'll try to locate a copy.

{"commentId":1513105,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"seward"}
  • 2 votes
#2.8 - Wed Feb 27, 2008 3:39 AM EST
Reply
{"commentId":1505411,"authorDomain":"seward"}

The film "Soyant Green" springs to mind, here.

{"commentId":1505411,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"seward"}
  • 1 vote
Reply#3 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 6:15 AM EST
{"commentId":1505998,"authorDomain":"cyregray"}

"Soylant Green is People!"

{"commentId":1505998,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"cyregray"}
  • 2 votes
#3.1 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:55 AM EST
{"commentId":1506920,"authorDomain":"petercasier"}

Weird. I had not even thought of "Soylent Green".. Argh, and it is not a nice thought...

{"commentId":1506920,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"petercasier"}
  • 1 vote
#3.2 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 2:43 PM EST
Reply
{"commentId":1506024,"authorDomain":"cyregray"}
How can this cycle be broken?

First and foremost people have to become aware of Psychopathy, ponerology and their implications: Those at the top don't care about starving children, they don't care because they cannot. They have a very specific psychological deviation that nulls their conscience. They have no empathy, no remorse, no ability to feel guilt or responsibility. These are the 'people' that run the world today, and they look at most of us as cattle, nothing more.

The reason they rise to the top is because they are willing to do anything to get there. In hierarchical systems they excel at hiding their deviation and slowly manipulating normal people until their pathology is effectively cloaked behind a 'mask of sanity'.

{"commentId":1506024,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"cyregray"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#4 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 11:01 AM EST
{"commentId":1506993,"authorDomain":"replytoj001"}

The reality is it is what it is.

This topic has been written, seeded and discussed several times before on Newsvine.

In certain areas of the world, proper irrigation and flood control is not possible because of governmental corruption and interference.

Poor, if any, long term food, water, land/soil, usage plans production are not available in many countries.

When any planning conferences takes place, people have their agendas and are unwilling to coordinate or cooperate with others to achieve what is best in the long term for all.

Keep in mind the newest fad for mass production of Bio-fuels....we will have fuel but we will starve. We will use our water to excess to produce our food, but at least we can drive to the store to pay increased food costs..

I predict that regional areas of the United States, within 3-4 years (if even that long long) there will be mass riots over lack of water, food affordability, heating costs, power availability, etc, etc......

As the raw material cost rise (especially fuel and feed), the costs will be passed on to the consumer, and we will take the huge hit.

Wages cannot keep up, and wages won't keep up.

This all does not bode well, technology can make up some of the deficit, but not all.

replytoj001

{"commentId":1506993,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"replytoj001"}
    Reply#5 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 3:04 PM EST
    {"commentId":1507091,"authorDomain":"redthumb"}

    If you subscribe to the Peak Oil theory that we have passed our peak and cannot increase production, then the agriculture business, that relies so heavily upon petro-chemicals for fertilizers and pesticides, will not be able to maintain world food production even at its present levels. The ultimate result will be a massive die-off of the earth's population, not just hunger related illnesses.

    {"commentId":1507091,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"redthumb"}
    • 2 votes
    Reply#6 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 3:27 PM EST
    {"commentId":1507786,"authorDomain":"replytoj001"}

    The History Channel had an interesting series on this very topic. It was well done and mentioned several of the items you point out.

    replytoj001

    {"commentId":1507786,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"replytoj001"}
    • 2 votes
    #6.1 - Mon Feb 25, 2008 6:03 PM EST
    {"commentId":1511513,"authorDomain":"petercasier"}

    Reminds me of a sentence "Stop the World, I Want to Get Off".. which movie was this from again? Not "The Perfect Storm", that is for sure.. ;-)

    {"commentId":1511513,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"petercasier"}
    • 1 vote
    #6.2 - Tue Feb 26, 2008 4:38 PM EST
    Reply
    {"commentId":1509254,"authorDomain":"petercasier"}

    Update from today: Wheat prices in biggest one-day rise.

    Prices of top-quality wheat jumped 25 per cent to a record high on Monday in their largest one-day increase as Kazakhstan, one of the largest grain exporters, said it would impose export tariffs to curb sales.
    {"commentId":1509254,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"petercasier"}
    • 1 vote
    Reply#7 - Tue Feb 26, 2008 3:42 AM EST
    {"commentId":1509483,"authorDomain":"mpellerin5108"}

    Just suppose we get to some point where producing food becomes more important than producing military weapons. We have been at war since the beginning of time and guess what? It has solved nothing. Two countries loaded with intelligent people, India and Japan, have formed a Global Partnership to share science, technology and person to person contact. This is in its 7th year and seems like a model for advancing peaceful corporation. Must we always think "enemy" rather than consolidating our intelligence so we can all live a better life on the same earth.

    Hunger is connected to a strong drive for survival. Security or who is the best country in the world will have litte "zest" in the human conscience if the stomach growls for food. Americans use 25% of the world's resources and much of it is waste. Affluency is nice but cycles according to our wit and honesty in handling resources. Thus, with arrogance, mindless spending, the want for more, more, more has us looking at limitations. Self-restraint is not a limitation to freedom - it is imperative to sustain.

    {"commentId":1509483,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"mpellerin5108"}
    • 1 vote
    Reply#8 - Tue Feb 26, 2008 7:11 AM EST
    {"commentId":1513034,"authorDomain":"petercasier"}

    Mona,

    Just suppose we get to some point where producing food becomes more important than producing military weapons.

    This article might be of interest to you: one minute of war in Iraq would feed 2,000,000 children for a day

    P.

    {"commentId":1513034,"threadId":"224543","contentId":"1322578","authorDomain":"petercasier"}
    • 1 vote
    #8.1 - Wed Feb 27, 2008 2:46 AM EST
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